Global racing landscape shifts with Japan now on top

Wednesday, 24 January, 2024 18:37

Equinox at the retirement ceremony

Inevitability and impact are natural foes, and yet, when the inevitable happened - when Equinox received his rightful coronation as the world's best racehorse of 2023 and the Japan Cup was at long last anointed the world's best race in a ceremony in London this week - it unleashed an impact the effects of which will only be seen upon reflection in the years ahead.

Whether it was in 2023 or 2073, it was inevitable that Japan would be recognised abroad as the world's leading racing jurisdiction at some point. For almost 25 years, at least since the turn of the century, it appeared a mere formality that Japan would eventually cap its remarkable half-century rise that has belied trends right across the globe.

However, now that this new dawn is upon us, it seems even more extraordinary that a nation that was effectively a racing minnow in the late 1970s has risen to become the king of the castle.

It marks a tectonic shift in international racing, one in which thoroughbred performance and race quality in Asia is given its long-overdue credit. This comes at a time when the global industry's power base has shifted away from Europe and the United States to Asia, particularly Hong Kong and Japan.

Now, there can be little doubt that Japan - and Asia more broadly - reflects the future of the horse racing industry at a time when jurisdictions all over the world are struggling for relevance in a rapidly shifting world.

For so long, the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities' global group of handicappers seemed unwilling to recognise Japan's meteoric rise, assisted by a deferential attitude adopted by Japanese representatives amidst a bear pit of self-interest and external pressure elsewhere.

Most national representatives would be fighting for every morsel of a point for their horses and their races, but by all reports, the JRA was generally willing to accept international assessments of their races even if they conflicted with their own evaluations. That led to some head-scratching ratings in which the Japanese ecosystem existed as an independent unit outside of the global infrastructure.

For instance, when Just A Way became the first Japanese horse to be named the world's best racehorse in 2014, it was based entirely off his incredible victory in the Dubai Duty Free at Meydan. It was a stirring performance that sparked a new generation of Japanese racing fans abroad.

However, Japanese racing connoisseurs would surely argue that his victory in the 2013 Tenno Sho (Autumn) - with Gentildonna four lengths astern and Eishin Flash six lengths from the winner in third - was every bit as dominant. For that, though, he only earned a mark of 123 - a discrepancy that still perplexes almost a decade on.

A previous maxim stated that to get proper recognition on the world stage, Japanese horses needed to perform away from home - that was the only way to get the credit they deserved. And in their 25-year link with the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings, that has borne out time and time again.

Before Equinox's remarkable 135 rating, the previous highest Japanese horse was 134 to El Condor Pasa. However, that was after his 1999 season in which he campaigned exclusively in France and so it can hardly be considered a "Japanese" rating.

Others, like Orfevre (129, 2013), were inflated because of what they had achieved abroad with little relation to their rivals at home.

So instead, Equinox's historic comparison is with a horse like Epiphaneia, whose 129 rating was achieved with his four-length Japan Cup victory. His sole international performance, a fourth in the QEII Cup in Hong Kong, did little to bolster his end-of-year figure.

In fact, that year - 2014 - also saw the Japan Cup rated as the world's best horse race with a figure of 125.25 - still 1.5 points shy of its 2023 rating - but the "world's best race" award at that time was presented on a three-year average, meaning that the Juddmonte International was rated the world's best and the Japan Cup was down in eighth.

So why the change now?

In addition to the JRA's handicappers being, rightly, more aggressive in their ratings and more vocal in their arguments, there has also been general acceptance that high Japanese ratings benefit all abroad.

With so many Japanese horses travelling and performing to the highest standards, the form is so intertwined that a bolstered Japanese performance will generally add credence elsewhere.

No longer do the days exist where a horse like Saudi Cup winner Panthalassa will receive a significantly higher rating than, say, Arima Kinen hero Do Deuce simply because he won abroad. A decade ago, they likely would have been on level terms, whereas Do Deuce (124) clearly outranked Panthalassa (120) as he should.

The real test, though, will come when Japan wins a major race in Europe. How will a Japanese winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe rate compared to a Japan Cup winner if both have similar profiles and performances?

For now, the focus is on continuing to improve the Japanese Thoroughbred, all while looking to cement the Japan Cup as the world's leading contest.

In London, JRA president Masayoshi Yoshida stated his desire to have global competition return in large numbers to the Japan Cup, a quest that has fallen away as the drought for international winners approaches two decades.

It will take only one strong performance by a visitor to encourage further bids, but finding the right horse to travel to Fuchu in November is a nigh-on-impossible task.

Perhaps the greatest result for the Japan Cup in 2024 would be if the Aidan O'Brien-trained Auguste Rodin ended his career with victory at Tokyo Racecourse. As a son of Deep Impact who has already won The Derby, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Turf, it would stamp Japanese breeding as the powerhouse that it has clearly become, all while proving that the right international horses can still prove competitive against the best that Japan has to offer.

It would prove, yet again, that Japanese racing and breeding represents the pinnacle on the world stage.

Article Creds:Andrew Hawkins

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