The highly anticipated Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, the world's premier turf G1 race is just a month away. While last year's event was filled with excitement due to the participation of horses like Do Deuce and Titleholder, this year lacks a clear-cut JRA favourite of that calibre. However, Through Seven Seas, came within a neck of defeating that champion, Equinox in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, she will represent Japan on the global stage.

As of the 2nd of September, according to the betting odds set by William Hill, Through Seven Seas is listed as the joint sixth favourite for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at odds of 17/1. Although her record boasts only one major victory in the Nakayama Himba Stakes, her performance in the Takarazuka Kinen. She pushed the world's No. 1 rated horse, Equinox to the limit. Not only has that improved her appearance on paper, it has also considerably enhanced her reputation in the court of public opinion.

One significant factor to consider in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the physical stature of successful horses. Recently, horses like Kiseki, Blast Onepiece, and Fierement had a body weight of 500kg or in that range. These horses struggled on the heavy turf of Paris Longchamp Racecourse and could not unleash their full potential. In contrast, Waldgeist was a relatively small colt, and when he competed in the 2018 G1 Hong Kong Vase, he weighed only 419 kilograms. This highlights the importance of a horse's physique and adaptability to different track conditions that the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe will likely be run on.

Looking at past performances of Japanese horses in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, it's noteworthy that horses that have performed well tend to have relatively small body weights. For example, El Condor Pasa, who finished 2nd in 1999 had a body weight of 472 kilograms when he last raced in Japan. Deep Impact, who finished 3rd (later disqualified) in 2006, weighed between 430 to 440kg . Nakayama Festa, who finished 2nd in 2010, and Orfevre, who finished 2nd in 2012 and 2013, both had body weights around 460 kilograms. Since 2000, Japanese runners with a body weight of 500kg or more have had a dismal record in the race, with no wins and no placed efforts in sixteen attempts. This suggests that having a physically imposing horse might be a disadvantage when competing in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Through Seven Seas, with body weight in the 440kg range, appears to have the physical attributes necessary for success. Additionally, considering her pedigree, which leans towards dirt racing on the female side and Dream Journey adds stamina to the page. There is potential for her to perform well on European turf as well. Ultimately, her performance in the race will depend on various factors, including her condition on the day of the race, jockey tactics, and luck in running. Racing is often full of surprises, and each horse brings its own unique qualities to the track. We'll have to wait and see how Through Seven Seas fares in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.