Japan's emergence as a force on dirt has been years in the making and yet, in many ways, it has come from nowhere.

Perhaps it should come as no surprise at all though given that the country's breeding prominence was essentially built on the back of the legendary Sunday Silence, winner of the G1 Kentucky Derby, G1 Preakness Stakes and G1 Breeders' Cup Classic in 1989.

While narrowly defeated in the world's most valuable race, the USD$20m G1 Saudi Cup, last weekend the performances of Ushba Tesoro in second and Derma Sotogake in fifth provided just the latest reminder that - at the elite level, at least - Japan is inching ever closer towards shaking the dominance of the United States on the surface.

Notably, second and fifth were also the positions the pair had filled - although in reverse order - in America's championship race on dirt, the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic in November.

Incredibly, should Ushba Tesoro join Thunder Snow as a two-time winner of the Dubai World Cup, he will be just short of becoming the world's leading earner of all time on 3.17 billion yen (USD$21 million).

Hong Kong superstar Golden Sixty will have his measure by just 30 million yen (USD$200,000), but he will race ahead of horses like Winx, Arrogate and Japanese standard bearer Orfevre.

The difference? While Golden Sixty (Hong Kong), Winx (Australia) and Arrogate (United States) are considered to be right among the best horses produced in their respective jurisdictions, Ushba Tesoro would struggle to find himself among the top 50 horses to have come out of Japan.

Talk of a Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe bid was considered fanciful following his Dubai World Cup win last year, but his owners have been rewarded for their audacity already and it would provide a great storyline heading into the Paris showcase in October should he line up.

It would be an incredible quirk if, after Japanese champion after Japanese champion had fallen short, a dirt horse would finally emerge as racing's Edmund Hillary, conquering the leviathan challenge that none before him had achieved successfully.

And, should he tick that most unlikely of boxes, there's no doubt his standing among Japanese thoroughbreds would rise dramatically.

Perhaps it is more likely that the nation will taste victory in the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup Classic before any Japanese representative wins the Arc, let alone Ushba Tesoro.

And while respect for the Japanese thoroughbred is almost universal, until a Japanese horse is - like Sunday Silence was in 1989 - adorned by a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May or crowned world champion - at least in their eyes - in November, they will remain a minnow in the eyes of the dirt guardians, the Americans.

Like in yachting, where American domination was unquestioned until Australia II landed the America's Cup in 1983, it will only be victory in those two races which will confirm that Japan has arrived as a dirt force.

There is no doubt that a large team will assemble at Del Mar in November, especially given Japan's success on both turf (Loves Only You) and dirt (Marche Lorraine) the last time the Breeders' Cup was held in San Diego in 2021.

But before then, it will be the Run for the Roses under the twin spires at Churchill Downs which will be the focus of Japanese racing fans.

A total of 46 horses from Japan have been entered for the three legs of the Triple Crown - the G1 Kentucky Derby, the G1 Preakness Stakes and the G1 Belmont Stakes (this year, run at Saratoga) - with a number set to make the trip to Louisville for the first leg in May.

The new NAR Triple Crown - staged for the first time this year and featuring the JPNG1 Haneda Hai, the JPNG1 Tokyo Dirt Derby and the JPNG1 Japan Dirt Classic - was expected to keep some horses away from the American equivalent. However, it still appears that high interest remains among Japanese owners keen to attempt one of racing's great feats.

Saturday's G3 Saudi Derby winner Forever Young certainly didn't look pretty in the way he won, but he perhaps produced the best Kentucky Derby trial of any Japanese horse ever with his victory on Saturday. That includes dominant G2 UAE Derby wins by the likes of Lani, Crown Pride and Derma Sotogake, as well as Mandarin Hero's narrow defeat in last year's G1 Santa Anita Derby.

What made the Yoshito Yahagi trainee so likeable was that he overcame significant buffeting at the start that saw him lose his position, as well as the way in which he chased so gamely down the stretch.

He will need to show a little versatility when he heads to Meydan for the UAE Derby but if he can hold a position and quicken away from his rivals, then he will head to Churchill Downs as the best candidate to give Japan its first Kentucky Derby.

The other query to come out of last weekend's Saudi Cup meeting is the graded stakes pattern for top-class dirt horses in Japan.

The G1 February Stakes was held at Tokyo the week before the Saudi Cup and, with defending champion Lemon Pop joining Derma Sotogake and Ushba Tesoro in Riyadh - as well as the likes of Remake, Bathrat Leon, Crown Pride and Meisho Hario, who all could have run in that race - it became something of a lesser Grade 1.

That is unusual in Japan, which is renowned for its restricted pattern, but even winning trainer Hidenori Take acknowledged that his horse Peptide Nile had not defeated the best dirt horses in the country.

Perhaps the February Stakes would be better served as a springboard to the Saudi Cup and the Dubai World Cup, which could be achieved by shifting it to late January - to the meeting where the G3 Negishi Stakes is currently run.

That way, it could still attract horses dropping back in trip from the NAR's only international Grade 1 contest, the Tokyo Daishoten, as well as horses stepping up from a rescheduled Negishi Stakes in early January.

It is a minor change, but one that could ensure that Japan continues its rise as a prosperous dirt nation.